India has a policy of FPTP as one of the principle cores of election to any house in the parliament. FPTP or First Past the Post system dictates that anyone to cross the majority, with even 1 percentage or even 1 extra seat more than 50% of the others, is the winner in any election. It is because of policies such as these and the recent happenings and agitation against the current government, has gotten people thinking, what they can expect the outcome of 2019 elections to be. The BJP vote share in 2014 was 31%. And with only this 31%, they were able to secure 282 seats in the Lok Sabha and were able to form a government with a majority.
As time has seen the tests of different political parties in our country, we can’t exactly be sure of anything, at least nothing short of guesses and speculations. Winning the Lok Sabha election and consequently, forming the government depends on how successfully is a party able to convert their voter percentage into seats.
It is because of this reason that despite having a 40% voter share in 1989, Congress with Rajiv Gandhi was unable to form the government. However, the BJP vote share in 2014 of 31%, gave them 282 seats, enough to win both the Lok Sabha over and form the Government.
What Instances from Across India Could Be Said to Have an Impact on India Next Election?
If there’s any single large-enough political party that could rival the BJP, that would be the Indian National Congress. It had received around 19.3% of the total votes as opposed to the vote share of BJP in 2014. The election results Kerala of 2016 could be an indicator for Congress gaining back popularity and the confidence of the voters. 71 seats were required to gain majority and the Congress had received 47 seats whereas the BJP received only 1 seat.
Mamata Banerjee’s Support:
A dozen Congressmen have left the INC after the 2014 election. The current leaders of the Congress including Rahul Gandhi, has been unable to keep his party members loyal or supportive. However, the main surprise for many politicians and analysts came after hearing the latest news Mamata Banerjee. Mamata had offered a safe seat to Ahmed Patel, Sonia Gandhi’s political secretary. This could be indicative of a future coalition in the works as Mamata Banerjee has been able to maintain a stronghold in her state. She has been a stalwart and given stiff competition to BJP in the state elections.
Furthermore, some of the recent policies put in place by the current govt. under BJP have not seen much favor from the non-supporters of BJP. To gain a strong majority in the India next election, BJP requires being able to win the support of those who don’t have a fixed choice of vote or candidature. This along with growing voices of dissent and discourse in the country in different parts could be attributed to a rise in insecurity among certain groups of voters in the country. It can safely be assumed from this that we’ll just have to wait and watch how the turnout of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections would be like.